Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser has warned that rebuilding global oil inventories could take up to two years, even after crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz fully resume. His comments highlight a deeper problem in the oil market: restoring transportation routes may not be enough to quickly rebuild the supply cushion that has been depleted during the conflict.
Speaking at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London on October 5, Nasser said the world entered the crisis with almost 10 billion barrels of oil stocks. Since then, nearly 3 billion barrels of gross oil supply have been lost, while more than 1 billion barrels have been taken from inventories to offset the disruption. Aramco estimates that less than 6 billion barrels of commercial inventories now remain, with much of that volume not practically available.
Why Could Oil Inventories Take So Long to Recover?
The central issue is that producers must replenish depleted stocks while continuing to meet ongoing global oil demand. Nasser said emergency reserves can provide short-term relief, but they cannot solve the longer-term supply imbalance created by lost production, disrupted shipping and weaker refining capacity.
That means a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would mark an important improvement, but it would not instantly return the market to normal. The industry would still need sustained production, functioning trade routes and sufficient refining capacity to rebuild oil stocks.
The International Energy Agency’s September Oil Market Report supports the broader picture of a strained market. The IEA said global observed oil inventories fell by another 95 million barrels in August, bringing cumulative draws since February to 507 million barrels, or an average of 2.8 million barrels per day.
The Strait of Hormuz Remains Critical to Supply Security
The Strait of Hormuz has become central to the current oil-market disruption because of its role in Middle Eastern energy exports. Attacks on shipping and continued security concerns have increased the cost and complexity of moving crude oil and refined fuels even as some Gulf exports have recovered.
Reuters reported that Middle East oil flows exceeded pre-war levels on several days toward the end of September, but crude prices remained elevated because logistical and security risks had not disappeared.
This distinction is important for the global oil supply outlook. More barrels moving through the region can improve immediate availability, but the market also needs reliable transportation, insurance, storage and refining capacity before inventories can rebuild consistently.
Refined Fuel Shortages Add Another Layer of Pressure
Nasser also pointed to pressure at the refined-fuel end of the market, where shortages can become a bigger problem for consumers and businesses than crude availability alone. Aramco’s CEO said refined fuel prices have risen even more sharply than crude, arguing that emergency stock releases cannot fix longer-term supply constraints.
The IEA reported in September that global refinery throughputs were 4.2 million barrels per day below the previous year’s level in August. It also said refining margins reached record levels in the Atlantic Basin, driven by sharply higher diesel costs.
This creates a potential mismatch in the recovery. Even when crude supply improves, fuel markets can remain tight if refining systems and product trade take longer to normalize.
What Does the Warning Mean for Oil Prices?
Oil prices have remained above $100 a barrel for Brent crude amid continuing geopolitical and supply concerns. On October 5, December Brent was reported at around $102.80 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded near $88.40.
The immediate price response could still change rapidly if the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens and supply becomes more predictable. However, the inventory warning suggests that the market could remain vulnerable to another disruption because the stock cushion available to absorb a new supply shock has become much smaller.
The Group of Seven has also agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from emergency reserves through the IEA over four months. That move is designed to ease near-term shortages, but it does not replace the larger task of rebuilding commercial inventories and restoring normal energy trade.
The Bigger Issue is the Loss of the Oil Market’s Safety Cushion
The most significant takeaway from Nasser’s warning is that an oil crisis does not necessarily end when production starts moving again. The global market can remain exposed for months or years when inventories have been heavily drawn down and refining and transportation networks are still operating under pressure.
For consumers, that could mean continued sensitivity in petrol, diesel and other fuel prices. For governments and energy companies, it raises the importance of strategic reserves, alternative export routes, storage capacity and supply diversification.
Aramco is exploring additional export routes and overseas storage as part of efforts to improve resilience against future disruptions.
Nasser’s two-year estimate therefore goes beyond an oil-price warning. It signals that rebuilding global oil inventories may be a much slower process than restoring oil flows, leaving the market with less protection against another major supply shock.
